Australian PMI data downbeat, but Aussie dollar still trading in bullish range

AUD/USD is on track to rise on Tuesday, extending gains for the second day in a row. AUD/USD found upside support from a pullback in the US dollar (USD), which could be attributed to lower US Treasury yields.

Australia’s preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index for October showed contraction in both the manufacturing and services sectors. The market expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to further tighten policy. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock said that if inflation continues to be higher than expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia is prepared to take appropriate policy measures.

China plans to approve additional sovereign debt issuance of just over 1 trillion yuan, Reuters reported, citing three anonymous sources. The move is part of Chinese policy efforts to increase infrastructure spending and stimulate economic growth. The NPC Standing Committee is expected to approve additional debt issuance on the final day of the meeting.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) looks set to extend its four-day losing streak, likely driven by falling U.S. Treasury yields. After hitting its highest point since 2007, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has taken a nosedive, causing the U.S. dollar (USD) to come under some selling pressure.

Markets view a November rate hike as unlikely, according to the CME FedWatch tool. However, the probability of a rate hike in January 2024 still hovers above 30%.

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