As of Thursday, the U.S. crude oil benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), is trading at $81.00 per barrel. Following the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep rates unchanged on Thursday, WTI oil prices halted a three-day decline. However, the outlook for oil demand may be constrained by Chinese economic data.
As widely expected, the Federal Reserve announced on Thursday that it would maintain interest rates. Federal Reserve Chair Powell emphasized during the press conference that interest rate policy relies on economic data and pledged to proceed with caution. The Fed has left the door open for further rate hikes, but the market believes that the rate-hiking cycle has ended, causing the U.S. dollar to weaken across the board.
Furthermore, escalating tensions in the Middle East could exacerbate the disruptions caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine to the energy markets.
On the other hand, October’s Chinese Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell below the 50 mark due to production slowdown and weak demand. This indicates that doubts about the recent recovery prospects of the world’s second-largest economy, China, persist in the market. It’s worth noting that China is a major oil-consuming nation globally, and a weakened economic outlook could exert pressure on oil prices.
Looking ahead, oil traders will keep an eye on the U.S. weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday. On Friday, the focus will shift to U.S. non-farm payroll data, with expectations of 180,000 jobs added in October, following a record 336,000 in September. These events could have a significant impact on WTI oil prices denominated in U.S. dollars. Oil traders will look to the data for clues and trading opportunities in the WTI oil price.