Indian Rupee Faces Slight Weakening on Strong US Jobless Claims and Rate Cut Cautions

The Indian rupee is expected to open slightly weaker on Friday following stronger-than-expected U.S. jobless claims data, which pushed U.S. bond yields higher. A Federal Reserve official’s cautious stance on potential rate cuts further influenced market sentiment.

Non-deliverable forwards suggest an opening around 83.15-83.16 to the U.S. dollar, compared to the previous closing of 83.1225. The dollar index showed a slight decline, while most Asian currencies remained stable, except for a modest rise in the Korean won.

The rupee is anticipated to have a generally range-bound day, finding support near 83.20-83.25. However, potential equity outflows could exert pressure on the rupee, making it crucial to monitor in the coming days.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.16%, driven by a 4 bps climb overnight in New York following better-than-expected initial jobless claims data. Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic’s comments on premature rate cuts and the strong U.S. labor market added to the narrative against aggressive rate cuts in the near term.

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