The NZD/USD pair encounters selling pressure as it strives to extend a recovery beyond the immediate resistance of 0.6070 during the European session. The New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi) is on the backfoot due to a prevailing downbeat market sentiment, prompting investors to seek refuge in safe-haven assets.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) experiences a modest corrective move following a substantial rally to nearly 104.60. The US Dollar gains appeal as expectations of aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) diminish rapidly.
Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari’s comments on lower recession risks provide policymakers with ample time to reassess interest rate outlook, contributing to the stronger US Dollar.
The Kiwi faces uncertainty ahead of the release of Q4 Employment data, expected on Wednesday. Investors anticipate a rise in the Unemployment Rate to 4.2% from 3.69% in the third quarter of 2023. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) grapples with complex decision-making amid higher inflation and deteriorating labor market conditions.
Technically, NZD/USD witnessed a significant decline after a channel breakdown on the daily timeframe, indicating a bearish outlook. Trading below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.6090 suggests further downside potential.
The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) dipping into the bearish range (20.00-40.00) signals more downside. A breach below the immediate support at 0.6050 may expose the asset to a June 8 low at 0.6026, followed by the psychological support of 0.6000.
Conversely, a recovery above January 24 high at 0.6150 could drive the pair towards January 31 high at 0.6075 and January 16 high at 0.6208. Traders are advised to monitor these key levels for potential directional cues.