Anna 
The Indian Rupee (INR) has observed a slight decline on Wednesday, reflecting a modest recovery in the US Dollar (USD). The currency pair, USD/INR, is expected to trade within a tight range due to USD inflows from importers and potential intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
A Deutsche Bank report highlights the remarkable resilience of the Indian economy, with growth momentum holding up better than expected despite geopolitical uncertainties such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict last year. The report anticipates India to achieve a real GDP growth of at least 6–6.5% over the long term, surpassing growth rates in similar developing nations. Investors are eagerly awaiting key economic indicators, including Indian GDP annual growth numbers on Thursday and the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for February on Friday. Stronger-than-expected results in these reports could boost the INR and pose a headwind for the USD/INR pair.
Furthermore, market participants will closely monitor the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter (Q4), scheduled for release on Wednesday, along with the preliminary Goods Trade Balance and speeches from Fed officials Bostic, Collins, and Williams. The focus will shift to the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) on Thursday, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, providing insights into the inflationary pressures in the US economy.
As developments unfold in both the Indian and US markets, traders are advised to stay vigilant for potential shifts in the USD/INR pair and adjust their strategies accordingly.
