The Indian Rupee (INR) experienced a downturn near its lowest point in a month on Wednesday, driven by the strength of the US Dollar (USD), along with rising crude oil prices and weakness observed in other Asian currencies. However, the optimistic outlook for the Indian economy may provide support to the INR and limit the upside of the currency pair.
The Indian economy is anticipated to grow by 8% this year, buoyed by a robust macroeconomic environment, as highlighted in the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monthly bulletin released on Tuesday. This positive economic outlook could potentially bolster the INR and counterbalance the prevailing external pressures.
Market focus remains on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision scheduled for Wednesday. While no change in interest rates is expected, traders will closely monitor the post-meeting press conference by Chairman Jerome Powell and the release of economic projections. Any indications regarding the future trajectory of US monetary policy could influence the direction of the INR.
Furthermore, on Thursday, attention will shift to India’s S&P Global Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data, providing insights into the performance of the Indian economy’s manufacturing and services sectors.
In summary, while the INR faces headwinds from a stronger USD and rising oil prices, the positive economic outlook for India could offer support to the currency, with market participants keenly monitoring upcoming events for further direction.