EUR/CHF has retreated sharply over the past few days. Economists at Commerzbank discuss the outlook for the Swiss franc.
In the end, no one likes the Swiss franc thanks to SNB intervention
We always believe that this is not because other market participants suddenly find the CHF more attractive, but that the SNB is expected to get involved. This makes it difficult to really trust the Swiss franc. Because without the intervention of the SNB, no one can know where the Swiss franc will be handed over.
What this means for the forex market: Everyone wants to know what everyone else might be thinking right now. As a central bank, intervening in such a difficult and often volatile process can also mean that market participants find it difficult to believe that other market participants favor the Swiss franc, even if that is the case. If everyone thinks this way, no one will like the Swiss franc in the end. Not despite, but because of the intervention of the SNB.