Ella 
Market analyst Ven Ram said U.S. Treasuries rallied, the dollar slumped and stocks rallied more after the U.S. inflation data for June was released. The first reaction is overdone, the second is the right development, and the third still feels like a fairy tale. Rate pricing suggests the market believes the Fed will end its tightening policy after raising rates by 25 basis points later this month.
But I think it’s foolish to think the Fed’s rate hike cycle is over when core inflation is at 4.8% and the labor market is still pretty strong. Even so, I don’t think the dollar will benefit from further rate hikes from the Fed. That’s because policymakers would need to raise rates quite aggressively to spur real interest rates in the U.S. to rise further, which is unlikely to happen.
