Ella 
NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.5977, down 0.43%. New Zealand Reserve Bank Governor Orr’s dovish remarks and mixed US economic data affected the fluctuations of the New Zealand dollar/US dollar. Before the market opens on Friday, the market is waiting to see the US February PCE price index.
New Zealand Reserve Bank President Orr said that inflation is normalizing and aggregate demand is slowing, which will lead to low and stable inflation, which coexists with normalized interest rates. Affected by this, the market is betting that the New Zealand Reserve Bank will cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2024, and the New Zealand Reserve Bank hints that the first interest rate cut will be in 2025. As long as the market underestimates this, the New Zealand dollar/US dollar may fall further.
In the U.S. dollar, the latest jobless claims data was slightly lower than expected, with 210,000 claims for the week ended March 23 versus expectations of 215,000. Additionally, fourth-quarter GDP was revised upward to show full-year growth of 3.4%. However, not all economic indicators are positive; the Institute for Supply Management’s Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for March missed expectations, coming in at just 41.4 versus expectations of 46 and the previous reading of 44.
Regarding Fed expectations, the probability of a rate cut in June fell to 66% from 85% earlier this week, providing some support to the dollar. Still, Friday’s release of the U.S. PCE price index could add to market volatility as investors may recalibrate their bets on Fed policy.
