EUR/USD Faces Downward Pressure Amidst Divergent Monetary Policy Expectations

The euro (EUR) experienced marginal gains on Friday, albeit amid subdued trading activity due to the Good Friday holiday in the US. Inflation data from the US, indicating a slowdown in February, raised the possibility of Fed interest rate cuts in June, contrasting with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) dovish signals.

LPL Financial’s chief economist, Jeffrey Roach, highlighted the potential for three interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, with a 66% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in June. ECB officials, including Governing Council member Robert Holzmann and Bank of Greece Governor Yannis Stournaras, have suggested the possibility of rate cuts in the eurozone, further contributing to EUR/USD bearish sentiment.

As traders await the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data release, expected monetary policy differentials between the eurozone and the US may drive market dynamics. Higher-than-expected PMI figures could diminish the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in June, exerting downward pressure on EUR/USD towards key levels at 1.07500 and 1.08000.

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