Anna 
In Tuesday’s European session, the USD/CAD pair exhibited sideways movement, hovering around 1.3580. The Canadian dollar struggled to extend its recovery beyond this level as investors awaited fresh labor data from the United States to gauge the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates.
Market focus for the week centers on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for March, scheduled for release on Friday. Additionally, today’s session will see investors closely monitoring the JOLTS Job Openings for February, with expectations of a slight decline to 8.74 million job openings compared to January’s 8.863 million.
A prevailing risk-off sentiment prevailed in the market following the release of strong US Manufacturing PMI data for March. This led traders to unwind their bets on the Federal Reserve commencing a rate-cut cycle from June. The US Institute of Supply Management (ISM) reported a Manufacturing PMI above the 50.0 threshold at 50.3, ending 16 consecutive months of contraction.
While S&P 500 futures experienced losses during the European session, the US Dollar Index (DXY) continued to trade close to a four-month high, slightly above 105.00.
Technical analysis reveals that the USD/CAD pair is on the brink of breaking out of the Ascending Triangle pattern observed on the daily timeframe. This pattern, characterized by a sharp volatility contraction, could result in a breakout in either direction. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.3520 indicates a sideways trend, while the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates within the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting market indecisiveness.
An upward breakout above the horizontal resistance at 1.3620 would propel the pair towards further resistance levels at 1.3655 and 1.3700. Conversely, a downward move below the support at 1.3441 would expose the pair to further downside towards 1.3413 and 1.3382 levels.
