U.S. retail sales expected to surge in June, could spark dollar rally

The U.S. Census Bureau will release its retail sales report for June on Tuesday, July 18.

U.S. retail sales are expected to have risen 0.5% in June, following a surprise gain in May.

A sustained recovery in auto sales would boost U.S. retail sales, triggering a relief rally in the dollar.

The U.S. Census Bureau will release retail sales data on Tuesday, July 18. June retail sales figures are expected to rise again after a surprise rise in May. Note that retail sales figures are seasonally adjusted but not adjusted for inflation.

The U.S. dollar (USD) struggled near its lowest level in 15 months after weak U.S. consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) reports last week rekindled expectations that the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its tightening cycle.

The U.S. retail sales report could have a big impact on Fed rate hike expectations, and in turn dollar valuations, given the lack of big U.S. economic data this week and the Fed’s “quiet period” ahead of the July 25-26 FOMC meeting. start.

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