Anna 
The NZD/USD pair experienced significant selling pressure on Tuesday, retreating from its over two-week high around the 0.5985 level reached the previous day. During the first half of the European session, spot prices remained depressed and are currently trading near the lower end of the daily range, around the 0.5940 area, driven by increased demand for the US Dollar (USD).
The prevailing sentiment in the market suggests growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may commence its rate-cutting cycle only in September. This sentiment, coupled with a slightly softer risk tone, has bolstered demand for the safe-haven US dollar while weighing on the risk-sensitive New Zealand dollar (Kiwi). Despite mixed Chinese PMI data earlier today, investors remain focused on the upcoming crucial FOMC decision scheduled for Wednesday. Additionally, US macroeconomic data, including the Chicago PMI and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, could offer further market direction ahead of the quarterly New Zealand employment details on Wednesday.
From a technical standpoint, the recent recovery from the mid-0.5850 region, representing the year-to-date low touched earlier this month, faced resistance near the top boundary of a downward-sloping channel extending from early March. This resistance level is currently situated near the 0.5980-0.5985 region, closely followed by the psychological level at 0.6000. Sustained strength above these levels could indicate that the NZD/USD pair has bottomed out in the near term, potentially paving the way for meaningful upside movement. In such a scenario, spot prices might target surpassing the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around the 0.6040 area and reclaiming the 0.6100 mark.
Conversely, any further decline in the pair is likely to find support around the 0.5920 area, followed by the key 0.5900 round figure. Failure to hold above the latter level might expose the year-to-date trough around the 0.5850 region, potentially leading the NZD/USD pair towards challenging the descending channel support, currently situated near the 0.5815-0.5810 region. Subsequently, breaking below the 0.5800 mark could trigger renewed bearish sentiment. However, caution is advised due to mixed signals from oscillators on the daily chart, urging restraint in placing aggressive bets ahead of key data releases and central bank events
