San Francisco Fed President Mary C. Daly highlighted the uncertainties facing the Fed during a fireside chat at George Mason University in Virginia.
Main summary
The past three months have created considerable uncertainty about the outlook for inflation in the coming months.
There is considerable uncertainty about the outlook for inflation over the next three months.
There are mixed signals from businesses, who say consumers appear to be getting picky but prices for input materials have yet to come down.
The balance sheet provides no signal about monetary policy.
There are currently no signs that the labor market is approaching a worrying situation.
The labor market is believed to be very healthy, but inflation is too high.
Risks to employment and inflation targets are balanced.
Fed policy remains restrictive, but it may still take time to reduce inflation.
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2% is the inflation target, and the Fed will not change its target as it works to achieve that goal.
Other issues with the Fed’s policy machinery may be interest rates at neutral levels, the likelihood of hitting the lower bound on interest rates, and the path of potential output.
A weak labor market will allow the economy to return to normal growth.
If the labor market tanked, I would consider adjusting interest rates.
It is too early to declare the labor market fragile and shaky.
Deflation continues; there is no doubt that inflation is slowing down more slowly now than it did last year.
Supply is still improving; there’s no evidence the Fed has to actually push the economy down.
Inflation expectations are solid and consumers are increasingly price sensitive.