EUR/USD: Further strength unlikely

EUR/USD’s upside momentum appears to be fading.

24-hour view: We do not expect a sharp fall in EUR to lows of 1.1058 (we expect EUR to move sideways). While the sharp drop seems overdone, the euro’s losses have yet to stabilize. The euro still has room to weaken further, but the chances of threatening the key support at 1.1010 today are low. Slight resistance is at 1.1090; if the euro rises above 1.1110, it indicates that its decline has stabilized.

Next 1-3 weeks: Last Friday (July 21, spot 1.1135), we emphasized that the recent rally in the euro has come to an end. We think the “Euro pullback is likely to extend, but any pullback will face solid support at 1.1010. Price action reinforces our current view. Overall, only a break of 1.1165 (previously ‘strong resistance’ at 1.1200) would suggest that downside risks have diminished.

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