24-hour view: Last Friday we emphasized that “sterling does not rule out further declines, but is unlikely to hit the important support of 1.2720.” GBP fell less than expected, as it rebounded strongly from 1.2767 (as high as 1.2888 in the North American session). Even so, momentum has not picked up significantly, and further gains are unlikely for the pound. The pound is more likely to consolidate between 1.2810-1.2910 today.
Outlook for the next 1-3 weeks: Our update has not changed much since last Friday (28 Jul 1.2800 market). As we have emphasized, ‘downward momentum is re-established, and it remains to be seen whether the pound can break through the important support of 1.2720. ’ Overall, as long as it stays below 1.2930 (a level of ‘strong resistance’ unchanged from last Friday), the pound will fall.