GBP/USD Consolidates, Eyes on US ISM Services Index & ADP Employment Report

GBP/USD was trading in a narrow range above 1.2750 during the London session on Wednesday. The economic calendar for the United Kingdom (UK) this week lacks top-level events. As such, the potential movement of GBP/USD will be guided by the U.S. dollar (USD), which is expected to remain active due to the dense data from the United States (US) this week.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the U.S. dollar against six major currencies, managed to hold above the key support level of 104.00. However, the near-term outlook for the U.S. dollar remains uncertain amid growing speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin cutting interest rates at its September meeting.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, 30-day Fed Funds futures pricing data indicates a 65% chance of a rate cut from current levels in September. This probability has risen sharply from 47% a week ago. A weak U.S. ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report for May and a downward revision to the first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data prompted the market to bet on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.

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