Ella 
The focus today is on the Riksbank’s policy rate announcement at 09:30am CET, followed by a press conference at 11:00am CET. The Riksbank is widely expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 3.75%. We stick with our view that the next rate cut will be in September, followed by quarterly cuts of 25bps, taking the policy rate to 2.25% by the end of 2025. Market focus will turn to the latest rate path forecasts and inflation forecasts, but a major revision to the March forecasts does not seem necessary due to the surprise to the upside in May. In Sweden, the NIER economic preferences survey will also be released at 09:00am CET.
In the US, President Biden will face off against former President Trump for the first time during the campaign in a 90-minute televised debate hosted by CNN. The debate is likely to reveal more about their respective ambitions for fiscal policy and regulation in the coming years. The debate will begin at 21:00 ET (03:00 CET on Friday).
In the Eurozone, we will be watching monetary aggregates and lending data for May. Our focus is on lending data as we have seen a rebound in credit impulse recently.
The Central Bank of Turkey will announce its policy rate at 13:00 CET. In line with consensus, we expect them to keep the policy rate unchanged at 50.0%.
Overnight we have some interesting Japanese data. These include inflation and industrial production for May from Tokyo. Price pressures in Japan have eased somewhat recently and the Tokyo data will indicate whether this trend continues in June. Japan has been less affected than most by the global manufacturing downturn, supported by a weak yen. With the manufacturing PMI approaching 50 for June, we expect industrial production to pick up a bit.
