Ella 
In early Asian trading on Thursday, NZD/USD continued to rise to around 0.6110. The US market was closed on Thursday for Independence Day.
Data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Wednesday showed that the US service purchasing managers’ index fell to 48.8 in June from 53.8 in May. This data is much lower than the expected value of 52.5. At the same time, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States increased by 238,000 in the week ending June 29, compared with 233,000 in the previous week and higher than the expected value of 235,000. Due to weak US economic data, the US dollar attracted some sellers, which boosted NZD/USD.
The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy meeting on June 11-12 released on Wednesday showed that Fed officials took a wait-and-see attitude at the June meeting. The minutes showed that “some participants emphasized the committee’s approach that the policy proposed will be dependent on economic data, and monetary policy decisions depend on changes in the economy rather than a preset path.”
Earlier on Thursday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that it would take time for inflation to return to 2%, and there was still a lot of economic data to observe.
In terms of the New Zealand dollar, the New Zealand Reserve Bank is expected to keep borrowing costs at 5.5% for the seventh consecutive meeting in July. However, investors have set the probability of the New Zealand Reserve Bank cutting interest rates in October at nearly 45%. Traders will get more clues from the monetary policy statement. Any signal from the New Zealand Reserve Bank that it will start the easing cycle early may suppress the New Zealand dollar and limit the upside of New Zealand dollar/US dollar.
