Ella 
USD/CHF fell for the fourth consecutive session on Monday. The outlook for the US dollar (USD) appears to be fragile as more investors speculate that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will shift to policy normalization at its September meeting.
The US dollar index (DXY), which tracks the US dollar against six major currencies, found temporary support near a three-week low of 104.85. The 10-year US Treasury yield fluctuated higher to 4.3%, but is close to a one-week low.
Expectations of an early Fed rate cut have increased, which is not good for the dollar and bond yields. In the latest dot plot, Fed officials indicated only one rate cut this year, while policymakers predicted a rate cut last quarter.
The June non-farm payrolls report (NFP) showed that the US labor market has eased in tightness, which makes it more likely that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates starting in September. The report showed that the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, and the average hourly earnings, a measure of wage inflation, decelerated to 3.9% year-on-year, in line with expectations. While the wage data was better than expected, it was still below the May reading.
This week, investors will be keeping a close eye on U.S. inflation data for June, which will be released on Thursday.
On the Swiss franc, falling inflationary pressures could force the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to continue cutting interest rates further. The Swiss consumer price index fell to 1.3% year-on-year in June, while economists expected price pressures to rise steadily by 1.4%.
