The Probability Of The Fed Cutting Interest Rates Increases, the USD Struggles & the JPY Strengthens

The yen extended gains for the third straight session on Monday. The U.S. dollar (USD) struggled after weaker-than-expected U.S. job growth data released last Friday, with USD/JPY losing support.

Japan’s current account surplus grew for the 15th straight month in May. The Ministry of Finance reported on Monday that the current account surplus rose to 2,849.9 billion yen ($17.78 billion) in May from 2,050.5 billion yen the previous month, exceeding expectations by 2,450 billion yen.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) in June exceeded market expectations, even though the pace of growth was slower than in May. In addition, the unemployment rate rose in June. These developments have led traders to speculate that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may start cutting interest rates sooner rather than later.

The CME FedWatch tool shows that interest rate markets are currently pricing in a 70.7% probability of a September rate cut, up from 64.1% a week ago.

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