GBP/USD Falls Ahead Of US Core PCE Inflation Release

During London trading on Friday, the pound hit a two-week low of 1.2845 against the dollar. GBP/USD is facing huge selling pressure due to uncertainty ahead of the release of the US core PCE price index, which will be released at 20:30 Beijing time.

The core PCE price index, the inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve, increased by 2.5% year-on-year, compared with the previous value of 2.6%, and the quarterly growth rate is expected to remain stable at 0.1%.

If underlying inflation falls as expected or faster, it would be negative for the dollar, as it would solidify expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sooner. Instead, the red-hot data will force traders to reduce their bets on an early rate cut. Pricing data for 30-day federal funds futures suggests the central bank will begin cutting interest rates in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback’s value against six major currencies, was trading subdued near 104.30. The dollar failed to capitalize on strong second-quarter U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth as weaker price pressures offset the impact. The U.S. economy grew strongly at 2.8% in the second quarter, double the 1.4% growth in the first quarter. Still, speculation that the Fed will cut interest rates in September remains unchanged as the gross domestic product (GDP) price index decelerated to 2.3%, slower than expected.

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