The Indian rupee edged higher on Wednesday despite a stronger dollar. The downside for the Indian rupee may be limited as potential intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may stem the rupee’s volatility in the near term. However, as India is the world’s third-largest oil consumer, a rebound in crude oil prices could drag the Indian rupee lower amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. In addition, concerns about foreign capital outflows from India and other emerging markets will also weigh on the Indian rupee.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of India will hold a meeting on Thursday, which will become the focus of the market. Any signal of a dovish turn in policy at the central bank’s August meeting may further depress the Indian rupee.