Ella 
During the North American session on Friday, the US dollar against the Canadian dollar fluctuated in a narrow range below the integer resistance level of 1.3600. USD/CAD struggled to find direction as investors focused on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting scheduled for Wednesday.
The Federal Reserve is almost certain to begin cutting interest rates at next Wednesday night’s meeting as officials worry about deteriorating labor market conditions and become increasingly confident that inflationary pressures will continue to return to the bank’s 2% target.
Meanwhile, traders remain divided over the size of the Fed’s potential rate cuts. The chance of the Fed cutting rates by 50 basis points to 4.75%-5.00% in September jumped sharply to 45% from 28% a day earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
In terms of data, the preliminary September Consumer Confidence Index (CSI) data released by the University of Michigan (UoM) was higher than expected. Consumer sentiment rose to 69.0 from the forecast of 68.0.
In Canada, a modest recovery in oil prices failed to boost the Canadian dollar (CAD). The Canadian dollar remains weak as the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) policy easing cycle is expected to be more aggressive than other G7 central banks. The Bank of Canada has cut its key lending rate by 75 basis points, with further cuts expected for the rest of the year.
The USD/CAD average is back around the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), around 1.3620. The near-term outlook for the pair appears bearish as the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) has shifted into bearish territory at 20.00-60.00 from 40.00-80.00.
