The euro opened the new week slightly below the 1.07 level, with developments on the continent and a looming political crisis in Germany having a negative impact on the euro even as the dust from Donald Trump’s election victory has settled.
The euro’s reaction last Thursday appeared to be temporary, finding no further support to continue rising.
A political crisis in Germany could lead to uncharted territory that could further weigh on the euro, as the German economy remains the steam engine of the European economy.
After a brief hiatus from the U.S. presidential election, the prospect of interest rate cuts is expected to return to the forefront of the agenda.
Following last Thursday’s Fed meeting, Chairman Jerome Powell did not make any new bets on the central bank’s next move.
For now, another 25 basis point cut in the benchmark rate in December remains highly likely.
Meanwhile, U.S. government bond yields remain high, which in turn is good for the dollar, but I am skeptical that yields can remain at their current highs and expect some good corrections soon.
Such a development could limit the dollar’s momentum and support a healthy correction for European currencies.
Today’s agenda is completely non-existent, with no macroeconomic news or statements from officials on either side of the Atlantic.
A very bad agenda could support a limited trading range scenario.
I am still on the sidelines but considering buying the euro around the 1.06 level as I estimate a good correction in favor of the euro will happen soon.
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