NZD/USD: Short-term outlook looks negative

Yesterday NZD traded between 0.6046/0.6095 and closed slightly lower at 0.6052 (-0.20%). This appears to be consolidating. Today we expect the New Zealand dollar to trade between 0.6035/0.6085.

Next 1-3 weeks: About a week ago we turned bearish on NZD. Since Monday (August 7, the market price was 0.6105), we pointed out that “the probability of the New Zealand dollar falling further has decreased.” On Tuesday, the New Zealand dollar fell to a low of 0.6035. Downward pressure has strengthened, but not by much. We remain bearish on NZD as long as it remains below 0.6100 (previously ‘strong resistance’ level at 0.6145). Whether the kiwi has enough momentum to break below 0.6020 remains to be seen though. Looking ahead, the next support is at 0.5985.

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