Ella 
AUD/USD fell for the fifth day in a row and fell to its lowest level since November 2022 in Asia on Monday, near 0.6450.
Deteriorating economic conditions in China, coupled with Sino-U.S. conflict and geopolitical risks, have dented investors’ appetite for risky assets and driven funds away from the risk-sensitive Australian dollar. On the other hand, the dollar climbed to a multi-week top and remained supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates rising for a long time. This put pressure on AUD/USD and triggered its continued decline.
From a technical point of view, the subsequent decline and breach of the 0.6500 psychological barrier adds to the credibility of a break below the bearish double top neckline at 0.6600. Combined with the aforementioned fundamentals, it suggests that the path of least resistance for AUD/USD is to the downside. However, the daily RSI is about to fall into the bearish zone, and it is worth being cautious.
Therefore, it is prudent to wait for a short-term consolidation or a modest rebound before traders will start betting on further declines. However, any tentative rally is more likely to face strong resistance and encounter fresh bears around the 0.6500 mark. This should limit AUD/USD around the 0.6530 area, which should currently act as a pivot point. A sustained rise above this level may trigger short covering and lift the spot price to the 0.6600 integer.
This is followed by last week’s shock high around the 0.6615 area. If it breaks through this level, the Australian dollar may further rise to the 0.6700 mark, which is the confluence of the 50-day SMA and the 200-day SMA. It is currently close to the 0.6725-0.6730 area.
At the same time, AUD/USD is expected to fall further below the 0.6455-0.6450 area and eventually fall to the 0.6400 round figure. Some follow-through selling would point the Aussie towards the next relevant support levels, near the 0.6365-0.6360 area and the 0.6300 mark, a decisive break above could be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and pave the way for further losses.
