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Minutes of the July FOMC policy meeting showed that a majority of members continued to see upside risks to the inflation outlook and left the door open for further tightening. But in our view, the encouraging development on the deflation front means that instead of raising rates again, the Fed will opt for a prolonged pause followed by a rate cut in 2024.
The greenback is enjoying some mild bullish momentum – helped by more worrisome news from the Chinese property sector – but a move above 104.00 (USD index) by the end of the week may lack a clear catalyst.
