Ella 
Currently, the negative tone in the Chinese market is too aggressive. In particular, we believe economic pressures in China are already priced in and any surprises are tilted to the upside. We also think talk of a financial crisis is overblown, while China’s stimulus policies are likely to change market sentiment in the second half of this year and early 2024.
While our macro team’s latest view is that the RBA is done raising rates, they do note the risk of another 25bp rate hike before the end of the year. With that in mind, the Australian dollar is one of the cheapest currencies on our radar.
The U.S. economy is set to slow in the second half of the year as U.S. data unexpectedly took on negative momentum, which is likely to weaken support for the dollar in the coming months. Note that our judgment is that Fed rates are at terminal levels.
Technically, 0.64 provides support, which we see as the start of a breakout higher as negative momentum in AUD/USD fades.
