Ella 
After Wednesday’s sharp drop to 144.53, we highlighted yesterday that “the dollar has room to weaken further”. Our view was wrong as the USD rebounded strongly to 145.95. Today, the dollar may recover further, but a clear break above 146.55 is unlikely. Support is seen at 145.60, followed by 145.20.
Next 1-3 weeks: Yesterday (Aug 24, spot at 144.75), we noted that the recent modest upward pressure has subsided and we expect USD to trade in the 143.50/146.20 range. We did not expect a strong rally to 145.95 in the USD. Despite the rebound, the upward momentum has not improved much. From here, the dollar must break and hold above 146.55 for a sustained advance to be possible. As long as the dollar stays above 144.50 for the next 1-2 days, the odds of a clear move above 146.55 remain intact.
