Yesterday, we expected AUD/USD to trade between 0.6400 and 0.6450. AUD/USD fell as low as 0.6401 during the New York session before surging above 0.6450 (high was 0.6487). The rapid build-up in momentum suggests AUD/USD could break above 0.6500. AUD/USD may not be able to establish a foothold above this level as the uptrend approaches overbought levels. The next resistance level at 0.6530 is unlikely. On the downside, a break below 0.6440 (minor support is seen at 0.6460) would signal an easing of the current upward pressure.
Outlook for the next 1-3 weeks: Last Friday (August 25, when the price was 0.6420), we believed that “AUD/USD will not rebound further and is now more likely to trade in the 0.6365/0.6500 range. The upward momentum has increased , but not enough to indicate that AUD/USD is ready to continue rising. To continue rising, AUD/USD must break and hold above 0.6500. As long as AUD/USD remains above 0.6400 (“strong support”) in the coming days, It has the opportunity to significantly break through 0.6500.