USD/CNH: Risk of further decline below 7.2390

The US dollar briefly fell to 7.2392 last Friday, then rebounded strongly and finally closed at 7.2715 (-0.05%), basically unchanged. The price action has not resulted in a significant increase in momentum. Today, the US dollar is likely to trade sideways, possibly trading between 7.2460/7.2860.

Next 1-3 weeks: Our latest view is from August 24 (spot price 7.2840), the dollar may temporarily trade in the 7.2500/7.3300 range. On Friday (September 1), the dollar fell below 7.2500 (low 7.2392) before rebounding to close at 7.2715 (-0.05%). Although downside momentum has not significantly increased, a break above 7.2500 slightly increases downside risks. However, the dollar must break and sustain below 7.2390 for a sustained decline to be possible. As long as the dollar remains below 7.3000 in the coming days, the likelihood of a clear decline below 7.2390 will remain intact.

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