USD/JPY: Upward bias maintained

We expect USD/JPY to rise to 148.30 yesterday. However, after struggling to reach a fresh high of 147.87, the USD fell to 147.03 and last settled at 147.29 (-0.24%). The dollar appears to have entered a consolidation phase. Today, we expect the USD to trade in a likely range between 147.00 and 147.80.

Next 1-3 weeks: After the USD surged to a high of 147.80, we noted on Wednesday (6 Sep, spot 147.70) that the USD “is likely to rise further, possibly to 149.00”. Since then, the greenback has not been able to make more progress on the upside (escalating to a fresh high of 147.87 yesterday before pulling back). We continue to maintain the same view for now. However, a break below 146.70 (“strong support” level unchanged) would suggest that the recent upside momentum has faded.

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