In early European trading on Tuesday, EUR/GBP rebounded from a one-week low of 0.8558 and then held near 0.8580. Mixed UK employment data failed to boost the pound, while investors awaited Wednesday’s UK monthly GDP and Thursday’s ECB interest rate decision to bring fresh impetus.
According to recent data released by the Office for National Statistics, the UK unemployment rate in the three months to July was 4.3%, compared with the previous value of 4.2%, in line with market expectations. At the same time, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in July fell by 207,000 from the previous value of 66,000, and was expected to drop by 185,000. Average wages, including bonuses, increased by 8.5% in the three months to July, compared with 8.2% in the previous month. Average salary growth excluding bonuses remained at 7.2%, in line with expectations.
Technically, on the 4-hour chart, EUR/GBP is trading within a descending channel that has been in place since mid-June. It is worth pointing out that the 50-hour EMA is about to rise above the 100-hour EMA. If the 4-hour chart forms a moving average golden cross, it indicates that the path of least resistance is upward. Meanwhile, the RSI is in bullish territory above 50, currently supporting the bulls.
Key resistance level is at 0.8600 (psychological round number mark and August 28 high). The next obstacles focus on the top of the descending channel at 0.8626 and the August 11 high at 0.8670 and the July 19 high at 0.8700.
On the downside, initial support lies at the 50 and 100 hourly EMAs at 0.8572. The next target is 0.8540 (September 4 low). Lower support is at 0.8524 (low on September 5). Key support lies at 0.8500 (bottom of the descending channel and psychological level).