Yesterday we emphasized that “upward momentum is beginning to build, albeit tentatively.” We believe the New Zealand dollar may move higher, but any rise is expected to face solid resistance at 0.5935. We pointed out that “support is at 0.5900, followed by 0.5880.” During the North American session, the New Zealand dollar briefly fell below 0.5880 and then rebounded, but did not threaten 0.5935 (as high as 0.5927). Momentum still appears to be building, with the NZD having room to rise above 0.5935, but is unlikely to hit the important resistance level of 0.5960. On the downside, a break below 0.5880 (with minor support at 0.5900) would indicate that the current mild upward pressure has faded.
Next 1-3 weeks: Our updates from Monday (September 11, spot price 0.5900) remain valid. As highlighted, recent downward pressure has subsided. Currently, the NZD is likely to be stuck in range trading, possibly between 0.5860-0.5960.