NZD/USD: The trend of the New Zealand dollar is unlikely to change significantly

Price action has been very muted, as you would expect with the key Non-Farm Payrolls report due out soon and volatility in U.S. bond markets easing.

Discussing the strategic context seems almost futile given that the future direction of 1-2 cents in NZD/USD could be entirely dependent on US data if it surprises. However, when considering what might replace the dollar’s specificity, it’s not easy to come up with many candidates.

Higher U.S. bond yields (which have so far been positive for the dollar) could threaten stability and risk appetite, but so far there are no signs of that happening. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) appears to be very comfortable with the outside world, so it’s hard to see a big change in kiwis (unless the US data surprises).

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