Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting: Case for no action stronger, risk of rising inflation worrying

The Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of its October monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, highlighting that the case for keeping interest rates on hold had strengthened. Other information from the RBA minutes indicated that inflation, employment, and updated forecast data will be released at the November meeting.

Key Summary

At the October meeting, the board considered raising rates by 25 basis points or keeping them on hold.

Board members saw a stronger case for doing nothing.

Members noted that inflation, employment, and updated forecast data would be available at the November meeting.

Members acknowledged that upside risks to inflation were an “important matter of concern.

Progress in bringing down inflation in the services sector has been slow.

The Governing Council is less tolerant of a gradual return of inflation to target.

If inflation persists for longer than expected, a further tightening of monetary policy may be necessary.

Rising house prices may be supporting consumption, which could be a sign that policy is not as tight as thought.

The full impact of past rate hikes won’t be seen in economic data for several months.

Economic data showed that the economy continued to grow at a moderate pace in September.

The members believe that the labor market has reached a turning point.

Members noted that there are few signs of a wage-price spiral.

A decline in the AUD/USD exchange rate eased monetary conditions, but only to a limited extent.

The trade-weighted Australian dollar is only slightly lower than at the start of the year, limiting the impact on imported inflation.

If left unchecked, the challenges facing the Chinese economy could spill over into the Australian economy.

Market Reaction

At the time of writing, the AUD/USD was trading around the 0.6356 level, staying high with an intraday gain of 0.22%.

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