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The EUR/USD pair has refrained from testing the resistance at 1.0765 and experienced a retracement. ING economists offer their insights on the pair’s outlook.
As of now, the baseline suggests a range between 1.0550 and 1.0750. The risk today appears to be around 1.0650, mainly due to event risk posed by a hawkish Fed spokesperson.
The movements in the EUR appear to be lacking strength, and a substantial rebound in EUR/USD will depend on a weakening of U.S. movements sufficient to trigger a clear bullish shift in the U.S. yield curve. However, this scenario seems premature.
For the time being, the baseline range is expected to hold between 1.0550 and 1.0750 unless there is a significant deterioration in U.S. data.
