NZD/USD: Moderate appreciation forecast in 2023

Dollar continues to struggle after Fed ‘skip’. This, along with the good performance of risk assets, has kept the New Zealand dollar higher, ANZ economists report.

Correlations between G10 currencies remain high, with US factors driving most things and local factors taking a backseat. New Zealand now has a recessionary badge, it is getting global attention, and the current account is at a precarious level. But from another perspective, the market is clearly keen to call a halt to the Fed, which weighs on the dollar. We expect continued volatility as this melee unfolds.

On the margin, we suspect that the correction to a lower USD (to fair value) will be the stronger force, which is why we forecast modest appreciation in 2023, but it is a close call.

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