Euro’s Unexpected Rally Faces Skepticism as Year-End Approaches

In a surprising turn of events, the Euro has defied expectations by securing the 1.11 level, propelled by an unexpected rise in thin holiday markets. Despite the lack of major news, the Euro’s upward momentum persists, partly attributed to potential portfolio stop-loss orders favoring the dollar.

The ongoing impact of the change in Fed rhetoric continues to exert influence on the dollar, contributing to the Euro’s unexpected ascent. The 1.11 level, previously identified as a target for considering buying USD in a previous article, has now been reached.

While the positive momentum currently favors European currencies, there is a looming anticipation of signs of fatigue and an imminent correction. The author expresses skepticism about the Fed’s ability to single-handedly sustain the Euro’s upward trajectory in the long term, predicting that the dust will soon settle on the changing rhetoric.

With little important data on the agenda for the remaining days of the year, aside from the upcoming weekly US unemployment claims, the author sees limited reasons for the Euro to maintain its momentum beyond the current technical outlook. Expressing the belief that signs of exhaustion will soon emerge, the author plans to implement a strategy to bet on the US dollar, setting the buy target slightly higher at 1.12 in response to the unexpected rise and the ease of acquiring the 1.11 level.

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