Ella 
In early Asian trading on Friday, NZD/USD was trading actively. NZD/USD found support near the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.6115 and is currently trading around 0.6120. Next week’s New Zealand Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be closely watched and may provide a signal for further updates on monetary policy from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits last week reached the lowest level since September 2022, the Labor Department reported Thursday. In the week ended January 13, the number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the United States fell to 187,000 from the previous level of 203,000. The total number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits was 1.806 million, which was better than the expected value of 1.845 million.
Improved economic data may prevent the Federal Reserve from starting to cut interest rates in March. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s FedWatch tool shows investors have cut bets on a rate cut at the March meeting to below 60%.
In the New Zealand dollar, the market expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to start an easing cycle in August 2024 and reduce the official cash rate to 3.5% within 12 months. Traders will get further clues from New Zealand inflation data next week. Headline inflation is expected to fall sharply from 5.6% annualized to 4.7% in the fourth quarter (0.6% quarterly).
Latest data from the Department of Business showed New Zealand’s Manufacturing Performance Index (PMI) fell to 43.1 in December from 46.7 in November. This is the ninth consecutive month of contraction in New Zealand manufacturing activity.
