USD/JPY Trade Choppy, Tilting Bearish

USD/JPY is trading around 147.50 at Thursday’s open, after falling below the 148.00 mark on Wednesday. USD/JPY has maintained an overall bearish pattern since peaking near 148.50 last week.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) remained steadfast in its dovish monetary policy stance on Tuesday, committing to keeping interest rates in negative territory until it sees enough evidence that inflation in the domestic economy will not fall below 2% thereafter.

The Bank of Japan is still waiting for changes in wage levels in the spring, as Japan traditionally conducts large-scale wage negotiations in the first half of the year.

U.S. purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) for January were broadly better than expected on Wednesday, with the S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) coming in at 50.3, an 11-month high, versus expectations of 47.9. The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) also rose to 52.9, stronger than expectations for a drop to 51.0 from 51.4 the previous month.

Markets are now turning to Thursday’s update on U.S. fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP), which is expected to fall back to 2% from 4.9% growth in the third quarter.

This trading week will also release a new round of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data. The monthly rate of the PCE price index is expected to increase from 0.1% to 0.2%, and the annual rate of the PCE price index is expected to decrease from 3.2% to 3.0%. As the Fed’s preferred method for tracking inflation, December’s PCE price index will be a key number from which investors can anticipate whether the Fed will accelerate the pace of rate cuts.

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