The yuan will be under pressure in the long run

Economists at Commerzbank said in a report that the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has begun to pay more attention to the weakening of the yuan. However, the yuan is expected to remain under pressure.

Foreign exchange policy measures unlikely to change yuan’s weakening trend

In the event of a sudden weakening of the yuan, the PBOC may continue to fine-tune its daily pricing to manage expectations and ease overwhelming depreciation pressure. The central bank has other policy tools to counter pressure on the yuan, such as lowering the reserve requirement ratio for foreign currency deposits and raising costs for traders who short the yuan. However, foreign exchange policy measures are unlikely to change the trend of yuan weakness.

We may need to see further macro policy stimulus and improving economic fundamentals to stem or reverse downward pressure on the yuan.

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