Market Awaits Fed Meeting Minutes & US Dollar Continues Decline

The dollar fell on Tuesday, extending losses after the long holiday weekend on speculation that the Federal Reserve will further delay the timing of cutting interest rates. The CME FedWatch Tool shows market participants are shifting their bets to June. The probability of a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut in March dropped to 34.4%, while the probability of a June rate cut rose to 55.1%.

The trading sentiment in the stock market was tepid, with U.S. stocks falling for much of the day.

Bank of England (BOE) policymakers testify before the Parliamentary Finance Committee on inflation and the economic outlook. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said the UK economy was at full employment, adding that the economy was showing clear signs of improvement. He added that inflation would not need to fall back to 2% for a rate cut to occur and commented that it was not unreasonable to expect a rate cut this year, although he did not provide a specific date.

Statistics Canada announced the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in January. The annual rate of the Consumer Price Index in January was 2.9%, down from 3.4% in December.

The Federal Reserve will release minutes of its latest meeting on Wednesday. The document could provide new clues as to what factors policymakers considered in rejecting a March rate cut at their most recent meeting, as investors try to assess the probability and timing of an upcoming rate cut.

EUR/USD is trading close to 1.0840, holding above the 1.0800 level in early trading on Wednesday. GBP/USD is trading around 1.2620. The Canadian dollar was the weakest performer against the US dollar, trading around 1.3520. AUD/USD has posted its fifth consecutive day of gains, trading around 0.6550. Finally, the Swiss franc and Japanese yen edged lower against the dollar, while gold moved above $2,030.

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