Australian Dollar Extends Winning Streak Amid RBA Minutes and USD Weakness

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues its winning streak for the sixth consecutive session on Wednesday. Upward momentum in the AUD is attributed to the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) meeting minutes, which have shifted market sentiment, indicating a reduced likelihood of near-term rate cuts. The decline in the US Dollar (USD) further supports the AUD/USD pair, possibly influenced by weakening US Treasury yields ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes scheduled for Wednesday.

However, the AUD may face challenges from a downturn in Aussie money markets, with the S&P/ASX 200 Index registering declines for the second consecutive session due to subdued mining stocks and metals prices. Additionally, mixed Wage Price Index data for the fourth quarter released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics does not appear to significantly impact the AUD.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) experiences downward pressure as market expectations lean towards no further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in upcoming meetings. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a notable decrease in the likelihood of a Fed cut, with probabilities at 8.5% and 30.7% for March and May, respectively. The market projects easing to begin in June, with a probability of 54.3%.

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