Fed: Little chance of rate hike after July

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Economists at Rabobank analyzed the minutes of the June 13-14 FOMC meeting.

Minutes from the FOMC’s June 13-14 meeting showed that some participants actually wanted a rate hike. In contrast, at a news conference on June 14, Powell said he wanted a more dovish pace.

Meanwhile, Fed staff seem less convinced by their recession forecasts. Or is this pressure from the FOMC?

Finally, the minutes did not use the words ‘skip’ or ‘pause’ during the thought-controlled presentation. So whatever happens in June: neither a skip nor a pause.

Looking ahead, as long as Powell sticks to a more dovish pace of the rate hike cycle, we remain skeptical of a second rate hike beyond July.