GBP/USD rose to its highest level since April last year on strong UK wages data for May. Economists at ING analyze the pair’s outlook.
Wage data could keep BoE hawkish longer term
The surprise uptick in UK wage growth was partly due to a backward revision. But that’s not a huge consolation, as looking at the private sector, which the BoE is watching, we’re seeing another big month-on-month increase in pay. Whether this is partly due to the continued penetration of the new national living wage (+10% in April) is unclear. But what is certain is that these figures are not what the Bank of England wants to see, and will maintain the market’s unusually aggressive price in the bank’s interest rate rise to around 6.40% early next year.
In this USD-weak environment, GBP/USD looks set to extend its advance to 1.30, while EUR/GBP could retest lows around 0.8520.