The Fed’s Most Important Inflation Indicator Hits, And The Dollar Strengthens

The dollar rose sharply on Thursday after Federal Reserve official Worrell made hawkish remarks, suggesting the central bank may keep interest rates at current restrictive levels for longer. Short-term bond yields rose and stocks also maintained good momentum.

Fabio Panetta, a member of the Board of Directors of the European Central Bank (ECB), reiterated that risks to price stability in the euro area are decreasing and that conditions are in place to begin easing monetary policy. Several ECB officials joined President Christine Lagarde in signaling a rate cut in June.

U.S. economic data has been generally encouraging. The final forecast for fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) was raised to 3.4% from the previous estimate of 3.2%. In addition, the United States released the number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week for the week ended March 22, which was better than expected at 210,000. Finally, the Michigan consumer confidence index was revised upward to 79.4 in March, much better than the initial estimate of 76.5, while pending home sales rose 1.6% monthly in February, better than expected.

Friday is the Easter holiday and most markets will remain closed, but Japanese markets will operate normally. Later in the day, the U.S. is to release the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s most important inflation data, which is expected to be steady at an annual rate of 2.8%.

The euro was the weakest performer, with EUR/USD falling below the key 1.0800 level.

GBP/USD closed slightly lower after GDP for the final quarter of 2023 was confirmed to have recorded an annualized rate of -0.2%.

Commodity currencies were mixed, with AUD/USD edging lower to settle around 0.6514 on tepid Australian data, but USD/CAD falling towards 1.3520 on the back of a good performance in equities.

Gold was the best performer, trading close to all-time highs, with prices trading around $2,220.

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