Ella 
On Monday, Asian markets will usher in a series of important economic data. U.S. stocks rose sharply last Friday, boosted by another round of better-than-expected job growth data in the United States.
The rebound in risk appetite in U.S. stock trading on Friday showed another unusual correlation, even as bond yields soared, oil prices posted a 4% weekly gain and expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut further waned.
Meanwhile, continued geopolitical tensions pushed gold prices to a record high of $2,330 on Friday.
Asian stocks opened Monday after U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday, as is customary, but there is still a lingering question of whether that momentum will carry over to Asian markets.
If an investor is finding it difficult to find his bearings this morning, he’s not alone. With the outlook for inflation remaining uncertain, it seems unwise to take a “risk on” this morning as oil prices soar.
Wednesday’s data is not the last time the Fed receives updated inflation data before its next policy meeting. The personal consumer price index to be released on April 26 will also attract their attention. However, it would be very helpful if inflation showed some signs of a rate cut over the next month or two.
From the Fed’s perspective, the last two inflation data releases were not encouraging. Core inflation increased 0.4% month-on-month in January and February. This teacup situation is inconsistent with the Fed’s efforts to push 12-month monetary policy back to target levels, let alone persuade it to stay at target levels.
Matching upcoming macroeconomic data with the idea that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates in June is becoming increasingly difficult.
Assuming March inflation data remains high, support from primary U.S. economic data, including retail sales and first-quarter gross domestic product, confirms that last quarter’s data showed overall strength. In this scenario, the committee could signal at the May Fed meeting that they are unwilling to cut rates over the summer.
