Ella 
The AUD/USD pair demonstrated notable resilience over the past week, rebounding from levels below 0.6500 on Monday to nearly reaching 0.6600 by the close of the week. This upward movement was primarily fueled by a surge in commodity prices and stronger-than-expected global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures.
Last week showcased the currency pair’s sensitivity to economic growth and fluctuations in commodity prices. Significant increases in copper (+5.71%), gold (+4.35%), and crude oil (+4.50%) provided substantial support to the AUD/USD, countering the dovish sentiment stemming from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) March Board meeting minutes.
The sustainability of the AUD/USD’s upward trajectory for the third consecutive week will depend largely on the continued uptrend in commodity prices, coupled with the upcoming release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which will reflect the Federal Reserve’s focus on inflation. Furthermore, Australian consumer confidence data, scheduled for release tomorrow, is poised to influence the currency’s performance.
In March, the Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index experienced a slight decline of 1.8% to 84.4, down from its February high of 86, marking a 20-month peak. This decrease underscores ongoing concerns among households regarding their financial circumstances and the challenges posed by the cost of living.
The minutes from the RBA’s March Board meeting revealed that the central bank did not contemplate an interest rate hike, marking the first time in nearly two years. Notably, the release of these minutes coincided with the survey period for the Consumer Sentiment Index. With potential tax cuts on the horizon, there is anticipation of improved consumer confidence in April.
